Herniated discs in his neck forced an early retirement.Īnd for players signed to these long-term deals, the longer the contract, the greater the likelihood that injury will ultimately strike. Prince Fielder – nine years, $214m: signed by the Detroit Tigers, traded to the Texas Rangers. Injuries, particularly foot problems, have diminished his production to the replacement player level over the past several seasons. Miguel Cabrera – 10 years, $275m: a herniated disc in his neck forced a premature end to the 2017 season and most of 2018 was lost to a torn biceps tendon.Īlbert Pujols – 10 years, $240m: given his age at signing, 32, this one might have been doomed from the start. Recent free agent history is full of such cautionary tales. Why? Well, 13 years is a long-time and life happens, namely injuries. Risk averse teams are increasingly reluctant to hand out large sums of money to players they don’t believe will deliver on the goods years down the line. If the Dodgers really wanted Harper, nobody would’ve opposed them leaning into his requests.But, for baseball, the concern hasn’t been over paying stupid money, but rather for paying stupid money for a stupid amount of time. Short-term contracts are only beneficial for older players and put younger players at a risk of hitting free agency after an unlucky down year. Coming off an All-Star season where he led the league in walks, belted 34 homers, drove in 100 runs and maintained an. He had the luxury of waiting it out and doing things his way. Harper wasn’t in a situation to take a short-term deal, though. He’s entering his age-31 season coming off an MVP campaign and could get close to 10 years. Alongside a stacked lineup, Harper earning $45 million a year from 2019-2022 would’ve then parlayed into another (at least) seven-year deal. Nonetheless, the Dodgers gave Harper a premier opportunity to hit free agency again after his age-29 season. Interesting observation within this story: /jOmUNnV64R- Bill Shaikin October 24, 2022 Perhaps they were taking into account his defense, and were instead willing to pay someone like Betts who’s elite (and versatile) on that front. If Harper desired long-term security, though, why didn’t the Dodgers feel a $25.38 million AAV over 13 years was a good idea? You’re bound to get elite production for about 8-9 years of that deal before the diminishing returns begin to take hold. The Dodgers aren’t going to pay that when he’s been good for a 1.2 WAR since the start of 2020. If Harper had picked the Dodgers, he'd be on the verge of another free-agent frenzy, as reports: - Bill Shaikin NovemRevisiting the Dodgers’ massive contract offer to Bryce HarperĪdditionally, as we detailed in our Harper vs Betts debate piece, the Dodgers were perhaps under the impression they needed to earmark big bucks for Cody Bellinger, who’s now more than likely on his way out of LA with a projected arbitration salary of $18 million in 2022. "The skill of Bryce Harper has nothing to do with the pajamas he wears." The Dodgers were able to fit that onto their payroll because Betts’ 12-year deal was backloaded.Īs for the playoff impact … do the Dodgers beat the Nationals in 2019? Do they need to trade for Trea Turner in 2021 (and does that allow them to keep Corey Seager)? Do they beat the Braves in that NLCS? Do they fall short in 2022 against the Padres? We’ll never know. At the very least, though, the Trevor Bauer contract likely never would’ve happened. The Dodgers pounced on that after the Boston Red Sox unexpectedly decided to tear down their operation. On the surface, fans don’t know how this would’ve affected the Mookie Betts trade in 2020. It would’ve been a record then, and it would’ve been a record now. That would’ve been a $45 million average annual value. Harper ended up signing a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies after reportedly rejecting the Dodgers’ four year, $180 million offer. They just weren’t willing to commit to the slugger on a long-term basis and that changed the entire trajectory of Major League Baseball. When Manny Machado didn’t work out for the Los Angeles Dodgers after the 2018 trade deadline, the team let him hit free agency and attempted to upgrade in the form of the next best player: Bryce Harper.
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